Since 1999, the debate on the US missile defense program has been the most important topic in international security research and the hottest topic in global politics.
Despite strong opposition from home and abroad, the US government unilaterally withdrew from the ABM Treaty and deployed a missile defense system, which has aroused widespread concern of the international community and become a hot issue in international politics at the turn of the century.
With the deployment of the US missile defense system, it is bound to cause major changes in international relations and international pattern, including nuclear strategy. I. US missile defense program during the cold war when World War II was drawing to a close, the United States developed the world’s first batch of three atomic bombs and showed great power in actual combat.
In the first few years of the atomic bomb, the United States was in an exclusive monopoly position and was in a dominant position in the confrontation with the Soviet Union.
However, the US nuclear monopoly was soon broken.
On August 29, 1949, the Soviet Union successfully conducted its first nuclear test, which began a long cold war period dominated by the nuclear arms race between the United States and the Soviet Union.
Since the 1960s, the United States and the Soviet Union have basically reached a balance in terms of nuclear strategic offensive forces and are in a state of balance, thus establishing the so-called “terrorist balance”, that is, one side dare not easily use nuclear weapons against the other side because it is worried that it is difficult to bear the price paid by the other side for retaliation.
Therefore, in order to gain a greater advantage in the contest with the other side, while seeking to reduce the number of nuclear weapons of the other side, the United States has been actively developing anti missile technology and its weapon system in order to seek nuclear advantage over the Soviet Union.
The United States has successively proposed and tried to develop the “sentinel plan” and “militia plan”, but it has not achieved substantive results due to various reasons, such as technology or excessive cost.
Both the United States and the Soviet Union were worried about the escalation of the costly anti missile plan and confrontation.
After difficult negotiations, the two sides finally signed the Anti Ballistic Missile Treaty.
The full name of the “Anti Ballistic Missile Treaty” is the “Treaty on the limitation of Anti Ballistic Missile Systems”.
It is a bilateral treaty signed by the Soviet Union and the United States in 1972.
On May 26, 1972, Soviet leader Brezhnev and visiting US President Nixon signed the Treaty on the limitation of Anti Ballistic Missile Systems in Moscow.
There are 16 paragraphs in the treaty, among which the important provisions are: Anti Ballistic Missile System refers to “the system used to intercept strategic ballistic missiles or their components in flight orbit”, including anti ballistic missile interceptor missiles, anti ballistic missile launchers and Anti Ballistic Missile radars.
The two sides are only allowed to establish limited anti ballistic missile systems around their respective capitals and around an intercontinental ballistic missile underground silo.
The treaty also stipulates that “both parties undertake not to develop, test or deploy marine, air and space-based and land-based mobile Anti Ballistic Missile Systems and their components”.
“The duration of this treaty should not be limited”, but “each party has the right to withdraw from this treaty if it determines that extraordinary events related to the subject matter of this treaty have endangered its best interests”.
The treaty entered into force on 3 October 1972.
In July 1974, Nixon and Brezhnev signed the protocol to the Soviet US Treaty on the limitation of Anti Ballistic Missile Defense Systems in Moscow, which stipulates that both sides can only establish an anti missile system around their capital or around an intercontinental missile launch base.
The ABM treaty is regarded as the cornerstone of global strategic stability.
There is currently a link between the nuclear disarmament treaty and the international non-proliferation treaty.
Although the United States and the Soviet Union have signed a series of treaties restricting anti missile systems, the United States has never given up developing missile defense systems.
On March 23, 1983, then US President Reagan proposed the strategic defense plan (SDI) in a televised speech to defend against a large-scale nuclear missile attack that may come from the Soviet Union.
The central content of this plan is to develop various advanced non nuclear defense weapons to establish a “sky net” to intercept strategic missiles in an all-round and multi-level manner.
The proposal of this plan is a reflection of the tough policy pursued by the United States during Reagan.
It indicates that while maintaining a strong nuclear strike force, the U.S. government seeks to establish an effective nuclear defense system in order to break the balance of nuclear terrorism of “mutual assurance and destruction” and seize military advantages, especially strategic defense and military advantages in outer space.
However, many people are skeptical about SDI because it costs too much, and many technical problems are difficult to solve and lack certain feasibility.
With the end of the cold war, the threat from the Soviet Union disappeared and the bipolar pattern ended, and the enthusiasm of American politics for this plan gradually disappeared.
However, the research work in this area has been ongoing, but the focus has shifted to the defense of limited missiles, and finally developed into the missile defense plan that the United States insisted on deploying after the cold war. 2. US missile defense plan after the cold war in May 1993, Clinton adjusted the SDI plan to the ballistic missile defense plan.
This plan includes two subsystems: “theater missile defense system” (TMD) and “national missile defense system” (NMD).
To this end, the US Department of defense established the “ballistic missile defense program agency” that year.
In the autumn of 1994, after the Republican Party won the Congressional mid-term election, it asked the Clinton administration to arrange the deployment of NMD in 2003.
Since 1999, the United States has accelerated the pace of developing NMD.
On March 17 and 18 of that year, the US Senate and house of Representatives respectively passed the NMD construction plan, which was determined in the form of law to make it a US national policy.
In 2000, Clinton made a decision to suspend the development of NMD in his last year in office.
In fact, this is because the deployment of the missile defense system is a strategic decision related to the international security strategy and the change of the international pattern, which has been widely opposed in the world and controversial in the United States.
Clinton left this important decision to his successor.
As soon as Bush took office as president in early 2001, he vigorously advocated NMD and claimed that he would decide when to withdraw from the “ABM Treaty” that hindered the establishment of this system “according to his own timetable”.
As opposed by the international community and many people at home, the Bush administration changed its “hard tactics” and used “soft tactics” to roundabout lobby European allies and start negotiations with Russia at the same time.
After the September 11 incident, Bush immediately seized the opportunity to emphasize that the United States was in danger of being attacked at any time.
Therefore, it was necessary to establish a missile defense system.
Morning of December 13, 2001 (North)On the evening of the 13th Beijing time), Bush officially announced at the White House that the United States would withdraw from the Anti Ballistic Missile Treaty signed with the Soviet Union in 1972, and said that the United States had informed Russia of this decision.
According to the treaty, Bush’s decision will enter into force in six months.
On June 13, 2002, the United States officially withdrew from the “ABM Treaty”.
At the same time, Bush called on Congress to approve as soon as possible the allocation of $7.
6 billion in the defense budget of fiscal year 2003 for the development of the national missile defense system (NMD).
On the evening of June 13, the US military conducted another sea based Anti Ballistic Missile Test.
In the test, the US military launched an interceptor missile from the aegis missile cruiser “Lake Erie” in the Pacific Ocean and successfully hit a target missile launched from Kauai Island, Hawaii eight minutes ago.
On June 15, the US military held a groundbreaking ceremony in Fort Greeley, Alaska.
On the one hand, it began to build six underground launch shafts for interceptor missiles and corresponding communication facilities.
On the other hand, it was to celebrate the withdrawal of the United States from the ABM Treaty.
Obviously, the pace of establishing NMD in the United States has really begun.
According to the plan, the United States wants to build a weather tight “sky net” by deploying land-based, sea based and air-based missiles to prevent missile attacks from any part of the world.
It is estimated that in the next four years, the cost of developing a missile defense system in the United States will be as high as more than $30 billion.
By 2015, the cost will reach $64 billion.
The United States already has the most powerful conventional military and nuclear forces in the world, and has its own military bases all over the world.
Why should the United States persist in building a missile defense system despite the strong opposition of the international community? According to the strategic logic of the United States, this is determined by the security environment faced by the United States after the cold war, which is different from that during the cold war.
After the end of the cold war, the threat from the Soviet Union disappeared.
Although the United States has the largest nuclear arsenal and the strongest conventional military force in the world, the United States does not believe that its security situation has been fundamentally improved, but faces more unpredictable and unpredictable security threats than during the cold war.
Among them, the proliferation of nuclear weapons, missiles and other weapons of mass destruction is regarded by the United States as a major security threat in the post Cold War era.
“The possible proliferation of weapons of mass destruction poses a direct military threat to the United States, which is one of the dangers facing the United States in the 21st century.
” According to the data of the US Central Intelligence Agency, more than 20 third world countries now have ballistic missile programs, especially North Korea, Iran, Iraq, Libya and Syria, which are listed as rogue countries by the United States, have certain missile technology.
In the view of the United States, when these weapons of mass destruction are controlled by the so-called rogue countries, they pose a greater threat to the security of the United States.
Because the leaders of these countries are irrational in the view of the United States, their regimes are non democratic and centralized, and they may use these weapons at any time for some “incomprehensible” reasons.
In 1998, the US Congress established a bipartisan ballistic missile threat Committee, chaired by Defense Secretary Rumsfeld of the Bush administration.
After investigation, the Committee believes that rogue countries such as Iran, North Korea and Iraq are entirely possible to attack the United States with ballistic missiles at any time.
Therefore, not allowing rogue countries to possess nuclear weapons is a key interest of the United States after the cold war.
Because although the United States has well-equipped conventional military forces, the United States believes that it is very dangerous to rely on non strategic nuclear weapons to prevent the enemy from using weapons of mass destruction in regional conflicts.
The United States cannot and should not count on the reliability of this deterrent against countries or terrorists who put all their eggs in one basket and commit lawlessness.
The United States believes that as long as countries that pose a “regional” threat such as North Korea and Iraq develop and deploy intercontinental missiles, it is necessary to give us territory, including Hawaii and Alaska, which are closest to possible launch sites, the ability to defend against ballistic missile attacks.
Therefore, US leaders have repeatedly stressed that in order to deal with the missile threat from rogue countries such as North Korea or terrorists, it is necessary to deploy a missile defense system.
The US government’s theory is that if the United States can intercept dozens of missiles from rogue countries, potential aggressors will become more obedient because they doubt the effectiveness of offensive weapons, or reduce the risk of these countries launching military attacks on the United States.
But in fact, the reason why the US government deployed the missile defense system is not because the United States wants to deal with missile attacks from so-called rogue countries, but for a more profound reason.
First of all, the main purpose of the United States to deploy a missile defense system different from general tactical weapons is to occupy an advantageous position in the future national strategic competition.
At present, there is no enemy in the world that can confront the United States.
Russia has to condescend to be a “partner” of NATO, and the strength of China and other countries can not compete with the United States.
The United States is taking advantage of the situation to consolidate its “one superpower” power.
Even if the international community is dissatisfied, the United States can still do it unscrupulously.
Therefore, Now is the best time for the United States to deploy this defense system with strategic offensive significance.
Secondly, the support and promotion of arms dealers have made the Bush administration go its own way.
The Republican candidate has always been an open supporter of the arms industry.
The huge military orders required for the development of the missile defense system have made the arms dealers spare no effort to lobby the government through various means, which has had an important impact on the government’s decision-making.
In addition, after the “9 / 11” incident, counter-terrorism has become the most important national security strategy of the United States.
When it comes to counter-terrorism, Americans are hostile to each other.
By saying a few more words “to protect the United States and the American people” at this time, Bush will undoubtedly win more support, which will also accelerate the process of the Bush administration’s deployment of the missile defense system.
The deployment of the missile defense system by the United States is bound to have a far-reaching impact on the international security situation and the international pattern.
The deployment of the missile defense system by the United States broke through the “Anti Ballistic Missile Treaty” signed between the United States and the Soviet Union.
The treaty established the nuclear deterrence strategy of mutual assured destruction during the cold war.
This strategy maintained the international peace during the cold war and became an important cornerstone of international peace in the nuclear era.
But the deployment of the missile defense system has broken this cornerstone.
The deployment of missile defense system may make the mutual deterrence of strategic missiles disappear and undermine the stability of international strategic forces.