Lecture 14 Iraq war and post-war reconstruction of Iraq I.

Iraq war and its consequences after the Bush administration came to power in 2001, Neoconservatism has increased its influence in American politics, manifested in unilateralism, emphasizing the use of force to promote western values internationally.

Especially after “9 / 11”, the United States despised international norms, treaties and security cooperation and proposed that the United States could directly and unrestricted combat terrorism without abiding by the sovereignty of other countries.

At the same time, before the start of the war in Afghanistan, the United States had listed Iraq as the target of attack.

After the war in Afghanistan was basically over, the United States began to implement the plan to attack Iraq.

The main reasons for attacking Iraq are: Iraq develops weapons of mass destruction.

Have close ties with Al Qaeda and support Hamas and other Palestinian “terrorist organizations”.

Saddam Hussein was a dictator who committed heinous crimes against the people.

But its real purpose includes: first, grab oil resources.

This will not only benefit some US dignitaries from the oil business, but also impact international oil prices and weaken OPEC.

Second, consolidate its influence in the Middle East, curb Iran, Syria and other “axis of evil” countries, and influence Saudi Arabia, Egypt and other countries that are increasingly alienated from the United States.

Third, establish a democratic window in Iraq to promote democratization and secularization in the Middle East.

Fourth, consolidate George W.

Bush’s position at home.

Fifth, strengthen the world hegemony of the United States and split Europe.

Sixth, the Saddam complex of the Bush family.

The war can finally settle the hatred of the Bush family against Saddam Hussein.

In November 2002, the United Nations established the UNMOVIC to resume the verification of weapons in Iraq, but the verification was fruitless.

The United States then formed a verification team to return to Iraq in 2003, and got nothing.

However, this did not dispel America’s war determination.

In February 2003, President Bush made a speech at the American Enterprise Institute and put forward the plan of democratic transformation of the “Greater Middle East”.

Iraq is obviously the primary goal of this plan.

The United States is preparing to attack Iraq from both military and diplomatic aspects.

In terms of military affairs, as early as a few months before the war, US and British aircraft have greatly strengthened their attack on Iraqi air defense facilities.

In terms of diplomacy, the United States has constantly disclosed the so-called evidence of Iraq’s possession of “weapons of mass destruction” on various occasions.

According to the plan, the coalition forces attacking Iraq are divided into North and south.

In the north, due to Turkey’s refusal to use its territory by the coalition forces, the coalition forces had to use a small number of special forces to cooperate with the attack on the southern line, and the main forces were assembled in the IKO border area on the southern line.

Iraq is also vigorously preparing for war.

Diplomatically, Iraq announced that it would continue to cooperate with the United Nations, saying that it would “unconditionally allow UN inspectors to return to Iraq” and actively improve relations with Iran and Kuwait.

Militarily, Baghdad redeployed its troops and divided the country into four war zones, with Saddam himself, his brothers and sons in charge.

Moreover, the main force hid in caves, bunkers and other underground facilities, focused on defending large and medium-sized cities such as Baghdad, and tried to delay the attack of the coalition forces.

However, the disparity in power between the two sides and the covert purchase of senior officers by the United States have long determined the outcome of the war.

The United States began to form a “volunteer alliance” after the failure of the resolution to authorize the United Nations to attack Iraq.

On March 18, 2003, Secretary of State Powell announced that the alliance has 45 countries, including Britain, Poland, Australia and Spain.

Among them, 15 countries do not want to disclose their names, most of which are Muslim countries.

At the same time, France, Germany, Russia and other countries firmly oppose the war choice of the United States, and the former two countries also oppose NATO’s involvement in this military action.

The Iraq war is divided into three stages.

The first stage was from March 20 to 30, during which the coalition forces launched the “beheading” operation against Saddam and senior officials, the “deterrent” operation against the Iraqi head office, command and communication system and media, and the “cutting off the snake head” operation aimed at cutting off Saddam’s contact with the army.

The second phase, from March 30 to April 5, is mainly to attack important Iraqi targets, including the Republican Guard, and support ground operations in Baghdad.

The third stage is from April 5 to May 1.

Air strikes will be carried out on southern and northern cities to attack the residual forces of the Iraqi army.

In the south, the coalition forces fought fiercely with the Iraqi army in some cities, such as Basra, Nasiriyah, Kut and so on, but on the whole, it went well.

On April 3, coalition forces attacked Baghdad and completely occupied the city on April 12.

On April 9, the statue of Saddam Hussein was pulled down in the central square of the capital.

In the north, with the cooperation of Kurdish armed forces, the coalition forces also successfully occupied Kirkuk, Tikrit and other places.

On May 1, Bush announced the end of major military operations in the Iraq war on the aircraft carrier USS.

After the war, 38 countries, under the pressure of the United States, sent troops to participate in the multinational force in Iraq or engaged in humanitarian work, such as Japan, South Korea, Honduras, El Salvador, the Philippines, Thailand and so on.

There are 140000 US troops in Iraq, 12000 British troops, 10000 troops from other countries and more than 160000 coalition troops.

In addition, US contractors also provide a large number of security service personnel. II. The first stage of Iraq reconstruction (May 2003 to June 2004) after the United States occupied Iraq, the following measures were taken to achieve its strategic objectives: first, completely dissolve the Baath Party’s state machine.

The United States announced the ban on the Baath party and the dissolution of Iraqi government organs, military, intelligence, security forces and police.

For a time, Iraq was in a power vacuum.

Second, control the key departments of the Iraqi government and allow the looting of other departments and institutions.

After entering Baghdad, the US military immediately controlled important government departments such as the Ministry of oil and the Ministry of national defense.

On the other hand, they let a large number of social idle people rob other government departments, museums and embassies and consulates of some countries, causing serious damage to social order.

Third, the United States should establish a dual leading body for military and civil affairs in Iraq.

In terms of military affairs, the commander of the US central command is in charge, and lieutenant general Ricardo Sanchez is the supreme commander of the multinational force in Iraq.

The coalition forces divided the country into three military control zones: the northern zone centered on Baghdad, controlled by the US military.

The southern region centered on Basra was under the jurisdiction of the British army.

In the central region, the Polish general is the commander, and the Allied forces composed of Poland, Australia and other countries are responsible.

The civilian administration set up by the United States was initially the “Office of Iraq reconstruction and humanitarian assistance”, which was headed by retired lieutenant general Jay Ghana.

Later, Paul Bremer (May 6) took overHis duties are the special envoy of the president and the supreme civilian administrator of Iraq.

Fourth, establish an Iraqi interim authority, which is completely under the command of the United States and is dominated by returnees and the opposition.

The United States supported the establishment of the provisional Governing Council (hereinafter referred to as the “provisional Governing Council”) as the interim government of Iraq.

The committee is composed of 25 people, including 13 Shiites, 5 Sunnis, 5 Kurds, 1 Christian and 1 Turkmen, which is basically in line with the demographic composition of Iraq.

The provisional management committee implements the “three person rotating chairman system” (later increased to 9) according to the proportion of ethnic and religious population, and the rotating chairman’s term of office is one month.

On September 3, the Provisional Management Committee elected 25 ministers, whose composition is also based on the Provisional Management Committee.

Fifth, seek legitimacy for the attack and occupation of Iraq.

After the war, the United States launched an active search for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, but there is still no harvest.

In the autumn of 2003, Bush put forward new reasons for attacking Iraq, believed that Iraq was the “core front” of the war on terrorism, and declared that a free and democratic Iraq would set an example for other countries in the Middle East.

Sixth, seek the recognition and support of the international community for the coalition’s occupation of Iraq.

The international community believes that the stability of Iraq after the war is of great significance, coupled with the consideration of improving relations with the United States, so it is also willing to give some support to the United States.

In October 2003, the fund-raising Conference for the reconstruction of Iraq held in Madrid raised a total of US $33 billion, and some experts predict that the demand for reconstruction funds in the first five years will be as high as US $180 billion to US $250 billion.

In May 2003, the Security Council adopted resolution 1483, lifting the 13 year long sanctions against Iraq, abolishing a set of United Nations led monitoring mechanisms established during the sanctions period, and establishing the “development fund for Iraq”.

In October of that year, the Security Council adopted resolution 1511, emphasizing that the occupation of Iraq is only temporary and that the occupation authorities should hand over power as soon as possible according to the actual situation.

The resolution requires the provisional Governing Council to submit a timetable for formulating a new constitution and holding elections to the Security Council “no later than” December 15.

The resolution also authorized the formation of a multinational force in Iraq led by the United States.

Seventh, the United States monopolizes the interests of Iraq’s reconstruction.

American oil companies monopolized Iraq’s reconstruction projects, with a total amount of $50 billion.

Other reconstruction projects are also basically monopolized by American companies.

The above measures of the United States ended the one party politics of the Baath party and established the basic political and economic framework of post-war Iraq.

Its goal is to establish a market economy and Western style democratic politics, that is, to establish a “democratic, secular and decentralized Iraq, prevent the recovery of Sunni forces and maintain the political balance of Iraq.

The American occupation was welcomed by Shiites and Kurds.

However, the United States has completely failed to take into account the complex reality and historical traditions of Iraq, so it has encountered serious difficulties.

First, anti American activities have intensified.

In the face of the American occupation, the Baath party, the radical Islamic organizations mainly based on Al Qaeda entering from abroad and the Iraqi people dissatisfied with the occupation have launched anti American activities, especially in Sunni areas, and the United Nations and international relief organizations have also become the targets of attacks.

The coalition forces were overwhelmed by improvised roadside bombs, with constant casualties and heavy pressure.

The US military’s indiscriminate killing of innocent people, arbitrary arrest and trespassing on civilian houses have aroused further anger and dissatisfaction among the people.

After the war, the British troops who paid more attention to the ruling strategy stationed in the south, so the Shiite area was relatively calm.

Since the beginning of 2004, the situation in Iraq has improved, and the number of attacks on coalition forces has greatly decreased.

However, attacks against Iraqi troops, police, civilians and foreign non military “soft targets” have increased, and the number of attack deaths has increased.

In March, a series of attacks on Shiite mosques during Ramadan killed 271 people.

This shows that the strategy of anti American organizations has changed.

Considering the upcoming power transfer in June, the U.S. military launched a large-scale military operation against Fallujah, the center of Sunni resistance, in early April 2004.

At the same time, there were two rounds of large-scale conflicts with Sadrists.

It was not until October that the latter reached a ceasefire agreement with the government in exchange for the right to participate in the Iraqi general election in January 2005.

Secondly, social order is chaotic.

After the U.S. occupation, a large number of criminal prisoners were released from prison, coupled with a large number of guns floating among the people and the U.S. military’s inability to control the situation, criminal activities increased rapidly, including robbery, homicide, kidnapping, rape and so on.

Thirdly, economic reconstruction is difficult.

The frequent attacks on oil pipelines by anti US forces have caused fluctuations in oil production.

Infrastructure has been severely damaged, water and electricity cannot be supplied normally, and water treatment facilities cannot operate.

23 residents in China are facing the problem of food and clothing.

The per capita income is only a few dollars, the unemployment rate is as high as 50%, and the child mortality rate continues to rise.

Depleted uranium bombs brought about by the war also caused serious environmental pollution.

The severe public security situation and economic depression caused a large number of people to flee and formed a wave of refugees.

In the Kurdish region, the local Kurdish militia effectively maintained law and order.

The two major Kurdish political parties, the Patriotic Union and the Kurdish Democratic Party, maintained the autonomous regime established after the Gulf War.

Balzani, the leader of the former, was the head of the autonomous region.

The autonomous region has become the only region with political stability and economic recovery in Iraq.

In the south, Shia resumed religious activities, and various political organizations emerged one after another.

The main Shia forces include: ① returnees cooperating with the coalition forces.

Including sharabi, the leader of the national assembly who has been in exile for many years, and Huey, who is in exile in London.

Sharabi is the leader of the United States and Britain.

He has little influence at home.

After returning home, he joined the interim management committee, the Provisional Management Committee.

In the past, the hu’i family had great influence among the Shiite people in the country, and abd Majid was assassinated immediately after returning home in early April 2003.

② Moderate local power.

All representatives attended the provisional Governing Council, including Sistani (Iraq’s Shiite spiritual leader), the call party and the Supreme Council of the Islamic revolution.

The last of these groups has 10000 militias, and its leader Hakim was killed in a bomb incident in August 2003.

③ The radical local anti American force, the Sadr II movement, controls 5000 militias known as the “Mahdi Army”.

Their power grew rapidly, refused to cooperate with the authorities and did not participate in the Provisional Management Committee.

The United States accused the Sadrists of being the killers of the assassinations of Hu and Hakim.

In short, the forces of Shiite radicals rose sharply after the war, and their relations with moderates deteriorated.

All factions established the political status of Shia and their own role in Shia after the warInfluence and compete with each other.

The United States mainly relies on Kurds and Shiites to establish its influence in Iraq, but it is also skeptical about the religious tendency of Shiites, especially Sadr.

The chaotic situation in Iraq forced the United States to change its original intention and decide to transfer sovereignty ahead of schedule.

In mid November 2003, Bremer signed an agreement with the provisional Governing Council, providing for the formation of a transitional government by the end of June 2004, to which the occupying authorities would transfer power.

On March 8, 2004, Iraqi factions signed the interim constitution, the main points of which are as follows: first, political reconstruction.

During the “transition period” from June 30, 2004 to December 31, 2005 at the latest, the independent Iraqi Transitional Government will take over power from the US and British authorities, hold general elections, and then the elected national assembly will draft a permanent constitution and establish a new government.

The draft constitution should be submitted to a referendum.

The veto of three provinces cannot be passed (this means that the Kurds can veto the Constitution).

Second, the political system.

Federalism.

Kurds have full autonomy, and Kurdish and Arabic are both official languages.

The president is the ceremonial head of state, and the prime minister has real power.

Third, civil rights.

Clearly defined the rights of citizens.

At least 14 women must be represented in the national assembly.

Fourth, the secular system.

Islam is the state religion and one of the sources of legislation.

The new constitution characterized by federalism is the result of compromise among various factions.

For the future state system, Shiites want to ensure their dominant position and make the country have a clear Islamic color.

Sunnis are very dissatisfied with losing their previous political dominance and hope to expand their position and influence in the new regime as much as possible.

Most of the organizations or believers of the two factions are unanimously opposed to the American occupation.

The Shiites demand that a transitional government be formed through direct election and that the United Nations take over the affairs of Iraq.

Many people also have reservations about the federalism proposed by the United States and oppose the provisions of the interim constitution on the referendum.

Shiites also demanded that the constitution list Islam as the only source of legislation.

On the day of signing the document, 12 of the 13 Shiite members of the provisional Governing Council issued a reservation statement.

In order to further improve the situation, the coalition authorities announced in April 2004 that the ban on former Baath party officials holding public office would be lifted.

In May 2004, Bush proposed a five stage transition plan, including the election of the Transitional National Assembly, the drafting of a new constitution and the formation of a permanent government.

He promised to help Iraq rebuild civilian infrastructure. III. The second stage of Iraq’s reconstruction (June 2004-january 2006) on June 1, 2004, the Iraqi interim transitional government was announced to be established.

On 28 June, the coalition authorities handed over sovereignty to Iraq two days in advance, thus formally ending the occupation.

The transitional government began to implement a new federal political system.

Ghazi Yawar, a Sunni Muslim nominated by the provisional Governing Council, served as the president of the interim transitional government, and Shiites and Kurds served as vice presidents respectively.

The general reason is that Iyad Allawi, a Shia returnee who has close ties with the United States, is appointed, and the Deputy Prime Minister is Kurdish.

Obviously, the Shiites have an advantage in the regime, and the sectarian politics in Iraq has been fixed.

On June 8, the UN Security Council adopted resolution 1546, which was formulated in accordance with the requirements of the United States and Britain on the transfer of sovereignty to Iraq.

The resolution declares an end to the occupation of Iraq by coalition forces, recognizes the interim Iraqi Transitional Government, and authorizes the multinational force led by the United States to remain in Iraq.

It provides a legal basis for US troops to be stationed.

In order to reinforce the impression of the transfer of sovereignty, on June 30, the occupation authorities transferred the “judicial custody” of Saddam (who was arrested in December 2003) to the interim government, which began preparations for the trial of Saddam.

However, the transitional government does not enjoy real power in terms of administration, finance, legislation and justice.

The United States has set up a new supervision committee, which has the right to supervise and veto the actions of the transitional government.

Another newly established national security committee provides advice to the government.

At the same time, it has set up an embassy in Iraq with more than 3000 people to take full charge of Iraq affairs, replacing the coalition occupation authority and Negroponte as the ambassador.

Meanwhile, George Casey succeeded Sanchez as the top commander of the multinational force in Iraq.

The United States is vague about the withdrawal and never mentions the final withdrawal time.

Iraqis reacted coldly to the establishment of the interim transitional government and its takeover of sovereignty.

Sistani issued a statement when the interim transitional government was just established, accusing the new government of lack of legitimacy.

From August 15 to 18, Iraq held a 1000 member national political conference, which produced an interim parliament composed of 100 parliamentarians.

Its main mission is to supervise the interim government and be responsible for preparing for the transitional Parliament elections in January 2005.

On January 30, 2005, Iraq held elections for the Transitional National Assembly.

150000 US troops, 30000 British troops and more than 100000 government military and police participated in security work.

A total of 7471 candidates from 75 political parties, 9 political alliances and 27 independent candidates participated in the competition for 275 seats.

Many Sunni organizations and the masses boycotted, while Shiites and Kurds were very active.

The election can be held relatively smoothly, mainly because the Iraqi people are tired of the violent conflict over the past year, including the indiscriminate killing and bombing of anti American forces.

According to the published results, 8.

5 million voters voted in the general election, accounting for 58% of registered voters.

The Shiite political party alliance “Iraqi unity alliance” won more than 4.

07 million votes, with a vote rate of about 47%.

Followed by a coalition of Kurdish political parties, with more than 2.

17 million votes, with a vote rate of 25%.

The Shia organization led by Allawi won more than 1.

16 million votes, with a vote rate of 13%, while the Sunnis won only 2%.

In April, the Transitional National Assembly elected Sunni Hassani as its speaker and Kurdish leader Talabani as its new president.

At the same time, the presidential commission nominated and called on the party’s general secretary Ibrahim Jafari to be the Prime Minister of the transitional government.

Although Sunnis boycotted the election, they wanted to participate in the regime, so the interim government was not formally formed until May 3.

Moreover, Sunnis are very dissatisfied and think that they have been given non important positions.

On August 28, the transitional parliament heard and accepted the draft constitution submitted by the constitution Drafting Committee, and the first formal draft constitution was issued after the war.

On 18 September, the transitional parliament approved the final draft constitution and submitted it to the United Nations.

On October 15, Iraq held a referendum on the draft new constitution, which was narrowly adopted with 78% support.

In fact, the draft constitution has been criticizedWe need the support of the US military.

Moreover, there are different nationalities and sects in the army, and they are infiltrated by anti American forces.

At the same time, all political parties have their own militias, including returnees, which control the situation in their areas.

After August 2003, the coalition officially authorized the militia organizations to maintain local security, thus recognizing their legal status.

This in fact weakens the central authority.

Various circumstances have hampered Iraq’s economic reconstruction.

Iraqi oil officials revealed that 186 sabotage activities against oil facilities occurred across the country in 2005, resulting in economic losses of US $6.

25 billion.

Before the war, Iraq’s daily crude oil production was 2.

8 million barrels, compared with 2 million barrels in 2006.

By September 2006, only US $1 billion (6%) had been used in the reconstruction funds approved by the US Congress in 2003.

At the same time, the US military announced on January 2, 2006 that after the last aid fund of this year is in place, the US government will no longer provide additional assistance to Iraq’s reconstruction.

On the other hand, the aid funds provided have also been misappropriated.

It is reported that of the $18.

4 billion in emergency reconstruction funds approved by the US Congress for Iraq, $5.

6 billion has been misappropriated for public security and other projects.

Many completed projects are unusable because of failed surveys, lack of electricity, mismanagement, public looting and idle equipment.

In addition, there are cases of misuse of funds by U.S. companies.

In April 2006, the United States special prosecutor general launched 72 investigations into companies involved in the reconstruction of Iraq.

As the situation continues to be volatile, people’s living standards are lower than before the war.

In February 2006, the New York Times quoted the report of the International Relations Committee of the United States Senate and pointed out that Iraq’s current public facilities such as oil production, power supply, water supply and garbage disposal are worse than those before the war.

At present, the average daily power supply in Iraq is less than 12 hours, there is no guarantee for housing, water supply and medical treatment, and more than half of the residents are unemployed and semi unemployed.

In July 2006, the domestic inflation rate was close to 70%.

The war also had a negative impact on Iraqi society.

Due to the poor security environment, students’ going to school and women’s going out have become problems, a large number of intellectuals have fled, and other factors have greatly limited the development of education and medical treatment.

At the same time, conservative ideas are also imposed on the society through armed forces.

Iraq’s cultural relics suffered heavy losses in the war, and the post war Shiite controlled government’s lack of interest in the ancient civilization of pre Islam makes the situation even more pessimistic.

Of course, the new environment did promote the freedom of thought, and a large number of new newspapers and periodicals appeared after the war.

As many observers have pointed out, the Iraq war has changed the regional pattern, and Iran is the biggest beneficiary of the war.

It removed Saddam Hussein from Iran.

At the same time, Iran controlled the situation in Iraq through the Shia faction in Iraq, so that some people exclaimed that a “Shia new moon” (including Hezbollah in Lebanon) appeared in the Middle East after the war.

Although the United States has repeatedly accused Iran and Syria of supporting Iraq’s anti American activities behind the scenes and making public threats, it has little effect.

At the same time, Sunni Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt are very worried about the impact of Iran in Iraq.

Some media reported that Saudi Arabia had provided assistance to Sunni organizations in Iraq, while Turkey was vigilant about the future independence prospects of the Kurdish autonomous region.

Therefore, the Iraq war has made Iraq an important factor endangering regional stability.

By the middle of 2007, the number of U.S. military casualties had reached 3705 (CNN released data).

The number of injured was close to 30000.

According to the associated press, the United States spent nearly $500 billion in Iraq in four years, almost close to 12 years in Vietnam after excluding inflation.

Therefore, the prestige of Bush and the Republican Party at home is declining.

As early as October 2003, the number of people opposing Bush’s Iraq policy exceeded the number of people supporting it.

The support rate of the Democratic Party rose accordingly, and the latter controlled both houses of Congress after the mid-term elections in November 2006.

Facing enormous pressure, Bush had to find a way out.

After the failure of the Republican mid-term election, Defense Secretary Rumsfeld, the main planner and commander of the Iraq war, stepped down, and then Robert Gates became Secretary of defense.

Earlier, the White House established an “Iraq research group” jointly led by former Secretary of state Baker and Democratic Senator Hamilton to explore good ways to get out of the dilemma.

On December 6, after months of research, the Iraq research group submitted a research report and policy recommendations.

Its proposition is: the Iraqi government should expand its army and assume the responsibility of safeguarding national security.

The United States should send a substantial increase in military personnel to the Iraqi army, and the main task of the United States will be to provide support to the Iraqi army.

But Bush did the opposite.

On January 10, 2007, Bush delivered a national television speech announcing the new US policy towards Iraq.

The contents include sending 21500 additional soldiers to Iraq (later increased to about 30000), requiring the Iraqi government to assume more responsibilities as soon as possible, and seeking the support of US allies in the Middle East.

In addition, the United States will spend more than $1 billion to revitalize the Iraqi economy, focusing on job creation, and send an aircraft carrier to the Gulf region to “warn Syria and Iran”.

Bush also demanded that the Iraqi government must be able to take over all provinces by the end of 2007 (at present, only three provinces have security control in the hands of the Iraqi government).

However, many US lawmakers, including Republicans, are skeptical about the new policy.

In addition, Congress and some scholars began to discuss the possibility of achieving security through autonomy in the three regions of Iraq.

Democrats continue to block Bush’s troop surge plan in Congress.

The house of Representatives passed two bills in July, requiring the Bush administration to withdraw all combat troops from Iraq by April 1, 2008 and banning the establishment of permanent bases in Iraq.

But the Democratic Party’s efforts to pass the withdrawal bill in the Senate failed.

In January 2007, David Petraeus became the new top commander of the US military in Iraq.

Meanwhile, the surge of US troops began and ended in June.

The new US troops mainly strengthen the security of Baghdad.

They have implemented a new security plan in Baghdad since February and launched an offensive against anti US forces.

Although the overall security situation in Iraq has not improved, Petraeus pointed out in the Iraq situation assessment report submitted to Congress on September 11 that most of the objectives of increasing troops in Iraq have been achieved.

On September 13, Bush delivered a nationally televised speech announcing that in FebruaryBy July 2008, the US military strength in Iraq was reduced from the current 20 brigades to 15 brigades, restoring it to 130000 before the surge.

Bush’s plan is clearly aimed at seeking the Republican Party to win the 2008 election.

In October 2006, the Maliki government put forward a bill, which formally established the specific plan for the implementation of federalism in the country.

It was immediately opposed by Sunnis and some Shiites, although the bill was reluctantly passed in Congress.

In April 2007, six Sadr ministers announced their withdrawal from the Maliki government.

In August, six ministers of the Sunni Iraqi harmony front also left.

A week later, five ministers of the inter sectarian political alliance “Iraq list” led by Allawi also announced a boycott of the government.

Maliki’s government has fallen into a crisis of legitimacy.

However, the draft oil law adopted by the government in July has received support from all factions.

The purpose of the draft is said to be to determine the control of oil fields and the distribution of oil revenue in all provinces in accordance with the “principle of fairness”, attract foreign investment, and prepare for the establishment of a state-owned oil company.

The draft will provide foreign oil giants with 30-year oil exploitation contracts.

Internationally, the United States is also forced to communicate with Syria and Iran.

In March 2007, the International Conference on Iraqi security, attended by the above-mentioned and the five permanent members of the Security Council, was held in Baghdad.

A consensus reached at the meeting was that achieving security and stability in Iraq is in the interests of all countries.

The US ambassador to Iraq and the Iranian deputy foreign minister held direct talks for the first time.

America’s allies are also gradually leaving.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair announced in February 2007 that the number of British troops in Iraq would be greatly reduced, which dealt a new heavy blow to the United States.

Since 2004, 14 countries including Spain, the Netherlands, Italy and Japan have withdrawn their troops.

In short, the Iraq war and reconstruction of the United States have basically failed.

Judging from the situation in Iraq, Shiites and Kurds have indeed got rid of the oppression suffered during Saddam Hussein’s period, but it will take quite a while to finally form a democratic, stable and equal pluralistic political structure.

The characteristics of the post-war Iraq situation can be summarized as five “changes”: Vietnam, Lebanon, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Afghanistan and Iraq.

Vietnam refers to the long-term stationing of U.S. troops in Iraq, and the war consumes a lot of U.S. human and financial resources, thus making Iraq a trap.

Lebanese means that the new political structure in Iraq is a Lebanese style sectarian politics, which is potentially dangerous.

At the same time, there are sharp contradictions among sects.

The political parties are based on sects and have their own armed forces to form a local separatist regime and establish close ties with foreign countries.

Bosnia and Herzegovina means that the sectarian contradiction in Iraq has developed into sectarian cleansing and large-scale forced population migration, resulting in a serious humanitarian crisis and endangering national identity.

Afghanization means that Iraq, like Afghanistan, has become an important base for Islamic International extremist forces against the United States.

At the same time, it refers to the possibility of Iraq’s disintegration of the military and the expansion of the Iraqi government.

At the same time, it also refers to the possibility of the United States falling into an “extreme state” in the future, which means that the United States is facing the disintegration of the Iraqi military and the expansion of the Iraqi government.