, a kind of Russian historical logic, was established by Peter: as long as it is conducive to the growth of the Russian country, it is all right, and its negative impact can be ignored. Russians can forget Peter’s cruelty, but the glory he won in leading Russia has made him respected for generations. They can also forgive Ivan Reid, who brutally killed his son. After all, the territory he laid made him worthy of the title of “the first czar”. No matter how many achievements the emperor brought into Russia. When I first saw him in Moscow in 1949, I said, “the winner should not be blamed”. This sentence can be said to be the best proof of the above historical logic.

on November 5, under Putin’s gaze, Medvedev completed his first state of the Union address since he became president. It is worth noting that in his speech, Mei did not congratulate Obama who was elected a few hours ago. This “neglect” may be a normal way for Russians to deal with the rising changes in the west, just as Peter the great built Peter fortress on the Baltic coast in 1703 and looked coldly at the more civilized, advanced and rich European Society from this “small window”.

“Russian style” “western use” dispute

for hundreds of years, the cold view of the West has constituted one of the important main lines of Russian history, and its essence is “Russian style western use”. The so-called “Russian style” mainly refers to the orthodox civilization from Constantinople (historically known as “the second Rome”). Since Archduke Vladimir drove Kiev people down the Dnieper River for “baptism” in 988, the Orthodox Church has taken root in Russia. In 1472, Ivan III married Princess Sophia, the niece of the last emperor of the Eastern Roman Empire, and introduced the Byzantine double headed eagle symbol into Russia as a symbol of Russia’s inheritance of the Byzantine Empire and the orthodox heritage. In the subsequent period when Vasili ruled Russia, Moscow has been promoted to “the third Rome”. When Ivan IV ascended the throne and was crowned “czar”, the “Lei Di” who later led Russia down Kazan and eastward to Siberia officially became a new emperor.

,

,

,

and the so-called “western use” refer to the western culture and social system that Russians have been learning with reference since Peter the great disguised as an apprentice went to Europe to “seek the scriptures” at the end of the 17th century. For example, empress Ekaterina’s infatuated enlightenment thought, the Marxism brought to Russia by the October Revolution, and the liberal economy that disintegrated Russian society twice after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russia has absorbed a lot of new knowledge from the west, but this has not fundamentally overturned the traditional values of the Russian people. One of the reasons why

,

,

,

and “Russian style” are deeply rooted is that the Orthodox Church introduced by Duke Vladimir is contrary to the popular Catholic and Protestant beliefs in Europe. Moreover, since the mid-13th century, the Russians have been brutally ruled by the Mongols for more than 200 years, and the toxin of autocracy has been injected into their genes. The fate of the conflict between Russia and the west is doomed because of its expansionary ambition, means and autocracy. Successive Russian monarchs may have had the impulse of liberalization reform, but when this kind of practice is slightly “excessive”, the monarch’s scepter will immediately turn the pointer back to the past. Just as Peter the great looked coldly at British parliamentary politics, Queen Ekaterina cruelly raised her butcher’s knife after Enlightenment threatened her rule; He had hoped to get rid of Russia’s autocratic tradition and warned Stalin not to allow too much dictatorship before his death, but the latter turned the Soviet Union into the Gulag islands through the anti rebellion movement.

just like the prescription prescribed by Solzhenitsyn after returning home in 1994, today’s Russians know better that they should critically examine everything in the West. The lesson in this regard is profound enough: the bourgeois government established according to the Western model after the February Revolution in 1917 survived only seven months and was overthrown by the Bolsheviks. The subsequent establishment of the Soviet era delayed the close contact between the free economy and Russia for more than 70 years; When history was close to the 1990s, the Russians who were deeply “imprisoned” in the hard-earned Soviet system eagerly looked forward to the blanket of liberalism. This eagerness was enough to melt people’s reason. Therefore, the biggest deviation from the Russian tradition occurred when the historical gate was opened, and the surging wave of liberalization swept across Russia, The result is a decade of chaos and decline – the western liberal economic system, which has dominated the world for hundreds of years, suffered an extremely embarrassing failure in its close contact with Russia again.

draw lessons from the past, and it has become the only choice to turn the historical pointer back to the past. Putin’s birth at this historic juncture has created conditions for Russia’s historic swing back. As for the amplitude of the swing back, Putin is giving the answer.

“the history of a powerful country

in addition to the autocratic tradition, the millennium development history has left Russia with a strong sense of national superiority and a strong sense of power. When Mrs. dongsila, who lives in the forest, saw the tall orthodox church with a golden roof, a strong sense of security dispelled the fear of the unknown forest. Since then, the image of the country has been almost stereotyped in the eyes of Russians – she should be as tall, sacred, dignified and inviolable as a magnificent church. This image was shown in the former Soviet Union’s design of the “Soviet Palace” which only stayed on the drawing later. The belief of “Soviet first” made the “Soviet Palace” on the drawing almost become the largest national landmark building in the world.

and after getting rid of the shackles of Tatar Mongols, the Russians found themselves the only Slavic (meaning “slave”) nation that broke the alien rule. For a time, this expectation of the national image has been greatly satisfied. Therefore, the “Messiah” consciousness, which has been firmly existing in the Russian mind since the “baptism of Kiev” in 988, is closely combined with this sense of national superiority and has become the spiritual source of self affirmation and appreciation of the Russian nationThe tragedy of Russian history is also a strange circle of history that has plagued Russia for thousands of years.

the future of Russia in the swing back

without understanding Russia’s history and national character, we can’t adopt correct principles to treat this nation. The strong sense of power and nationalism make Russians not only hold a realistic position when thinking about international issues, and sometimes the emotional component even accounts for a large proportion. This determines that the Russian nation will not compromise or even seek flexibility in the face of Western repression. Its leaders must be able to make Russians feel that their country has the ability to oppose foreign repression, and the sense of power should be satisfied. It is no wonder that Medvedev’s attack on the United States in the state of the Union address was interpreted by experts as Mei’s showing that he also has a tough side.

Russia is more committed to its own traditions and systems against the background of the global economic crisis that originated in the West. This makes the amplitude of the swing back more and more larger. The biggest surprise in Medvedev’s state of the Union address was his proposal to extend the presidential term from four to six years. The proposal made by the current president, who is not a core role, may not be interpreted as seeking to dominate the presidency for a longer time. Associating with the trend of Russian society calling on Putin to continue as president at the beginning of the year, it seems that Mei’s proposal can be interpreted as a second call for Putin to return to the Jianghu. In fact, Putin has never “washed his hands in a golden basin”. As prime minister, he also effectively controls the direction of the country.

Medvedev made a thought-provoking statement in the state of the Union address. He criticized the rampant bureaucracy and nationalization in various fields, saying that “our country is the largest employer, the most active publishing house and the largest producer of literature and art. Our country is the unity of courts, political parties and people. Such a system is absolutely inefficient and can only breed corruption”. However, the wave of nationalization in Russia is irreversible.

as mentioned earlier, in the field of culture and thought, Putin’s re description of Stalin reflects the shadow of the competent ideological officials of the former Soviet Union, while his management of national films and dramas exposes the shortsightedness of ideological control. In the field of economic rule of law, large enterprises in which the state holds a controlling position are gradually integrating and annexing other non-state-owned enterprises, and the corrupt class is also playing the role of Putin’s governance tool while seizing national wealth. Even in the diplomatic field, Russia remains as tough as ever in the face of the West. All these should not be the expression of Medvedev’s “Pro politics” with liberalism and relatively soft to the West. What’s more, the anti-corruption bill recently pushed by Mei Shi is encountering difficulties in the State Duma controlled by Putin, although “Transparency International” rated Russia as an “extremely corrupt country”; Moreover, Putin has just begun to rectify many opposition liberal parties, although Mei hopes to give them more space and opportunities.

,

,

and

above are undoubtedly a portrayal of Russia’s accumulated difficulties eight years after Putin’s “restructuring”. These eight years are eight years for Putin to reorganize order, but they are not enough to let the system grow on its own. Putin’s promise “give me 20 years and give you a new Russia” doesn’t seem to be a joke. If Mei’s proposal to extend the presidency becomes a reality, Putin will have the opportunity to get another 12-year “Kremlin time” for two more terms. In this way, his promise can be fulfilled. What is happening now points to the realization of this commitment, and the development of Russia’s state system is also moving steadily along the road set by Putin, although there are many problems in it.

looking forward to Russia in the next 12 years, it is certain that the “laissez faire liberal economy” that once brought disaster to this country will be replaced by “an economic system regulated by the state everywhere”, so as to reduce the cost paid in the collision between the old and new systems. However, it is still uncertain whether Russia under Putin is enough to build a social system with self correction function and a system that can adjust itself when contradictions accumulate to a certain extent, which is very important for Russia to avoid the “strange circle chaos” that has occurred many times in history. (Note: Based on the necessity of transmitting news value, the article entitled “historical swing of Russian politics” in the 24th issue of south wind window in 2008 is specially reissued for readers.)