Yegor gedar is the main executor of the highly criticized “shock therapy”. He was worried that today’s Russia was suffering from “post imperial syndrome”, that is to say, he missed the empire that had died… In the near future, Germany was trapped in the post imperial syndrome and appeared.
the author of
in the fifth issue of essay magazine in 2010 is the translator and reviewer of the Central Compilation and Translation Bureau. He once served as part of the volume of the second edition of the complete works, the Memoirs of Gorbachev Translation and proofreading of Khrushchev’s memoirs and other books.
the Soviet Union, the first socialist country once solid, disintegrated peacefully in 1991. This accident was like a bolt from the blue, which stunned and even puzzled the world. Some people felt sad and regretted that this was due to the success of the trick of the peaceful evolution of imperialism and the degeneration of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. It is not surprising and understandable that different people will interpret this historical event from different angles.
Yegor gedar, an economist who died young not long ago, is the grandson of the famous writer alkady gedar and the main executor of the highly criticized “shock therapy”. In 2006, he contributed the book “the demise of the Empire” to the world. Why did he come back to this topic 15 years after the disintegration of the Soviet empire? The subtitle of
is “lessons to be learned from contemporary Russia”. In his preface, the author said bluntly: “I would not have written this book if I had not seen how politically dangerous the current practice of Russian politics to take advantage of post imperial syndrome is.” The so-called “post imperial syndrome” is nostalgia for the extinct Empire and nostalgia for the good old days. The author thought that the people’s concern for their own welfare would dilute the hopeless illusion of restoring the Empire, but he was very wrong.
at the beginning of the disintegration of the Soviet Union, life was tight. No one knew whether the money to support the family could be maintained until next month, whether it could be paid at that time, whether there were jobs tomorrow, and where to think about the great cause of the Empire? However, when life is just getting better and I know that the salary next year will be higher than this year, I can enjoy those old Soviet era films with my family after work. All the Soviet scouts in the film have excellent martial arts and repeatedly defeat the enemy. The Soviet people’s life is also carefree. We can talk about how the enemy planned to bring down our powerful country, and how we can restore the glory of the Empire. The propaganda of the authorities tried to describe the patriotic war as a leader with a clear mind and invincible. From 1998 to 2003, the positive evaluation jumped from 19% to 53%. Russian post imperial syndrome dominates social consciousness and elite consciousness, and the threat it poses has reached a very serious level.
the author believes that the Russian economy was highly dependent on international oil prices in 2006, and the international oil prices have risen to the level of Brezhnev period. Of course, it has not reached the highest value, but it has seriously deviated from the average value for many years. The whole structure is unstable. It seems solid but fragile and vulnerable. Gaidar was reluctant to see the Russian leaders who had experienced a serious economic crisis. At the beginning, the leaders were unprepared for the unpredictable trend of oil price, which eventually led to the economic collapse. I hope we don’t get carried away by victory, revel in high oil prices and be arrogant. Not long ago, Germany, the defeated country in World War I, was trapped in the post imperial syndrome and was unable to extricate itself. Hitler appeared, which made the world pay an extremely high price.
in view of this, Gaidar, who was ordered to clean up the mess in the face of danger, stepped forward, quoted a large number of archival materials, analyzed them in detail, and interpreted the whole process of the collapse of the Soviet Union from the perspective of economists, in order to arouse the national sense of crisis and abandon the post imperial syndrome.
the author believes that socialism is a shortage economy. The real food supply crisis in the late 1980s and the government’s inability to guarantee the performance of its responsibility for resource allocation are the most important economic reasons for people’s loss of trust in the Soviet social system and the collapse of the system.
in the mid-1980s, the Soviet Union had a serious balance of payments and financial system crisis, which then developed into a comprehensive economic crisis. The production and living standards fell sharply. In fact, the country was bankrupt, unable to repay up to 100 billion US dollars of debt, and the Treasury was empty. The economic situation was almost catastrophic: all economic indicators fell across the board, inflation increased, prices soared due to the shortage of materials, the consumer market began to collapse, and the country was threatened by famine. Political instability is ultimately the disintegration of the political system and the Soviet empire.
Rome was not built in a day. In the author’s opinion, the “fuse” that triggered the comprehensive economic crisis was the worldwide decline in oil prices in the mid-1980s; The remote cause can be traced back to the mandatory overall agricultural collectivization in the late 1920s.
were originally in the period of new economic policy. Due to the right policies and the smooth hearts of the people, there was a gratifying scene of prosperity and bumper crops all over the country. Industry and agriculture went hand in hand and made great achievements. From 1921 to 1928, the average growth rate of national income reached 18%.
in the mid-1920s, the Bolsheviks faced a choice on how to promote national industrialization, and there were differences of opinion: either continue to expand economic freedom and let rich farmers and nepman (private entrepreneurs and businessmen in the period of new economic policy) continue to accumulate wealth; Either strengthen the national administrative system, transform the countryside, eliminate the rich peasants, eliminate individual farmers, and establish collective farms and state-owned farms to make them a channel to deliver the required resources to industry. The two opinions compete repeatedly, and finally it is the latterThe collapse of the Soviet Union was due to the rigid economic and political system of the Soviet Union, so that the country could not adapt to the challenges of world development at the end of the 20th century. The legacy of socialist industrialization, the extraordinary burden of national defense, the serious agricultural crisis and the lack of competitiveness of the processing sector all make the collapse of this system inevitable. However, from the 1970s to the early 1980s, these problems can still be adjusted by high oil prices.
in the new realistic background, the first is the sharp decline in international oil prices, trying to continue to implement the consistent policy for decades has no future. The essence of this policy is to close the existing economic and political system without any change. By 1985, the Soviet Union had the foundation for a profound economic crisis. This year, a new generation of political elites represented by Gorbachev began to take charge of state power. Can they recognize the situation, seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, contain the crisis, try their best to reduce the losses caused by the crisis, and at least try to prevent economic collapse?
unfortunately, although these people are better educated than their predecessors, they do not understand the domestic reality and know nothing about the composition of the international market, the balance of foreign trade and the relationship between budget and residents’ supply. I do not know that the monetary and financial situation has reached a precarious stage, and the severity of the balance of payments crisis and the financial crisis is underestimated. They are still confident that they can restore the vitality of the Soviet economy, increase the rate of economic growth and shorten the gap with developed countries. Paradoxically, some measures taken by the new leaders after taking office have actually contributed to the intensification of the economic crisis. First, the anti alcohol campaign reduced the state’s budget revenue, and the profit from alcohol sales fell sharply from 60 billion rubles in 1985 to 38 billion in 1986 and 35 billion in 1987; Second, accelerating economic development has greatly increased the scale of national capital construction investment; Third, reduce the number of imported industrial products for mass consumption. Coupled with the decline in oil prices, the sharp increase in the national budget deficit is inevitable. Until the end of 1988, Soviet leaders began to understand the relationship between the imbalance of the financial system, the circulation of money and the intensification of commodity shortage in the consumer market. However, it is too late, and the national financial system and consumer market have begun to collapse. In 1985, the national budget was 18 billion rubles, with a deficit of 90 billion rubles in 1988. The national debt at the beginning of 1989 was 312.4 billion rubles, and in 1989 it was as high as 400 billion rubles, equivalent to 44% of GDP. In order to make up for the budget expenditure, a large number of funds from the State Bank of the Soviet Union and residents’ monetary funds without sufficient supply of commodity resources were used.
the socialist system implemented by the Soviet Union itself does not have the conditions to use the market mechanism to adjust the imbalance between grain supply and demand. If there is a food shortage in a country with a market economy, it is natural to change food prices. Not in the Soviet Union. In terms of food supply for residents, the country has always adhered to the principle of providing cheap food for the public. In 1962, Khrushchev decided to raise the retail price of meat and dairy products, which triggered a worker riot in the city of new cherkask, and there were civilian casualties during the pressure. Since then, successive leaders have regarded raising food prices as a daunting path, all around. Over the years, despite the increasing income of residents and the negligible growth rate of agricultural production, the price of main food has always been maintained at a low level. In order to keep food prices stable, we have to continuously increase subsidies to consumers. By 1989, subsidies for food accounted for about one-third of the national budget expenditure, and the subsidy share of main food was as high as 80%. The country is already overwhelmed. Prime Minister rezhkov later wrote: by 1990, if the national income created in the last 35 years had increased by 5.5 times, the state’s subsidy to prices had exceeded 29 times!
then, in the context of the sharp decline in world oil prices, can we consider changing the export structure and earning foreign exchange by exporting processed industrial products? Sorry, most civil machinery products of the Soviet Union are lack of competitiveness and sales in the international market due to backward technology and poor quality. In fact, the amount of machinery exported by these countries is less than 6%.
in order to overcome the crisis, the following measures could have been taken: reduce the output of the processing sector and vigorously reduce military expenditure and weapons production, so as to free up some raw material resources, increase exports and earn foreign exchange; Reduce the scale of capital construction investment and stop importing large amounts of technology and equipment from abroad. However, such measures involve the interests of all aspects and are easy to cause social and political unrest. The Soviet Union continued to implement its original economic and political policy and shelved its controversial decision. Therefore, when the country was deeply in the financial and monetary crisis, the increase of uncompleted projects in 1989 swallowed up four fifths of the national income growth!
at this time has reached the level that even if we do not borrow new debt, the scale of foreign debt is expanding only due to the increase of debt repayment expenditure. In 1990, almost all of the proceeds from oil exports were used to pay debts and interest. The increasing debt of the Soviet Union has become the target of close attention of Western newspapers and periodicals. The western industrial and banking circles have been wary of providing loans to the Soviet Union, and their trust in the Soviet Union has declined sharply. While western banks declined to provide loans, they advised the Soviet side to seek financial support from Western governments directly.
the Soviet Union has implemented a prudent credit policy for a long time. Until the mid-1980s, it still enjoyed the reputation of being an blameless first-class borrower. Now, the situation has changed. There has been a crisis of foreign debt repayment. Facing the risk of the collapse of the economic and political system, the Soviet leaders have no choice. It is to urge the United States and its allies to provide national credit funds and loans from the International Monetary Fund and the world bank to the Soviet Union. In order to increase access to loans, such a guarantee can be made: the Soviet Union will not use force to maintain political control over Eastern Europe. The Soviet Union made unwarranted mistakes in its economic policies, including those made decades ago, and refused to pay the domestic price for correcting them,Then we have to make concessions in foreign policy.
foreign exchange situation is becoming more and more dangerous. In mid-1990, the country was on the verge of declaring itself unable to pay. In 1990, the negative balance of payments of the Soviet Union reached US $17.1 billion, and the current payable amount of foreign debt in 1991 was US $20.7 billion. At the end of 1990, the Soviet authorities not only publicly requested the west to provide new loans and credit guarantees, but also requested charitable assistance. In December 1991, the key issue was not to raise foreign exchange for the purchase of food, but to pay off the debt for the freight of ships transporting food to Russia.
at this time, the Soviet leaders increasingly lost control of the domestic situation. With the increase of, the shortage in the consumer market intensifies, and the scope of limited supply of goods expands, which are shaking the foundation of the legitimacy of the political power. The impact on the capitals and major cities of the participating republics is particularly huge.
although there was temporary blood transfusion from western countries, the Soviet economy was terminally ill and on the verge of collapse. The Soviet regime was also in turmoil. The disintegration of the entire Soviet Union is only a matter of time.
a British little song sings: “when there are no nails, the horseshoe falls off; when the horseshoe falls off, the horse is lame; when the horse is lame, the commander loses his life; when the cavalry is defeated, the army runs away! The enemy invades the city and the captives are killed without mercy. It is the disaster that there are no nails in the blacksmith’s shop.”
who would have thought that a decision-making mistake in choosing the road to industrialization would make a big mistake and lose everything after many years. Anyone who is a politician can be careless!