Lesson 11 the historical root of the Afghan problem Afghanistan is located in the east of West Asia, adjacent to Pakistan, Iran, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and China.
Afghanistan borders China in the northeast through the long and narrow wahan corridor, and the border line between the two countries is about 75 kilometers long.
Afghanistan has no access to the sea, and the nearest external access to the sea is Karachi, Pakistan.
In addition, it maintains land transportation links with the outside world through Turkmenistan and Iran.
With a land area of 655000 square kilometers, Afghanistan is a mountainous landlocked country known as “Switzerland in Asia”.
Mountains and plateaus account for 45% of the land area, and arable land accounts for only 3%.
Most areas in the territory have a continental climate.
The northern plain, the southern and western desert areas are hot and dry in summer, warm and less snow in winter.
The mountains are cool in summer, with more rainfall, and cold and snowy in winter.
The main religion is Islam.
The population is currently estimated at 30 million and almost all residents are Muslims. I. the formation and crisis of Afghanistan’s traditional neutrality.
Afghanistan’s geographical location, limited territory and population and backward social economy determine the formation of its traditional neutral diplomacy.
As a landlocked country, Afghanistan is located in the center of Asia, the eastern end of West Asia, and between the four regions of West Asia, Central Asia, South Asia and East Asia.
Despite the relative lack of resources, Afghanistan’s unique geographical location has made it an important channel for East-West trade and culture and a place for strategists since ancient times.
The famous silk road passes through Kabul and Herat, while Buddhism, Zoroastrianism and Islam are introduced into China from west to East through Afghanistan.
Especially for the South Asian subcontinent, Afghanistan has become its most important land portal.
The historical great emperor, King mamud of the Ghaznavid Dynasty and founder Babur of the Indian Mughal Dynasty invaded India from Afghanistan.
Therefore, Afghanistan is of great strategic significance.
Historically, Afghanistan has always been a buffer state, and the surrounding powers have fought fiercely for control over Afghanistan.
In the 13th-14th century, Safavid Persia and Mughal India fought for it.
In 1747, Ahmed, the founder of Afghanistan’s modern state, rebelled as a Persian general and established the first Pashtun state in history between the two empires of Persia and India.
From the founding of the people’s Republic of China to 1978, the formation and evolution of neutral diplomacy in Afghanistan can be divided into the following four stages: (1) the period of consolidating an independent state (1747-1839).
After the founding of the people’s Republic of China, Ahmad immediately fought back against the two empires of Persia and India.
He expelled the Persian and Indian troops and invaded India many times.
The country he founded has a vast territory, including Lahore, Karachi and other places in Pakistan in the south, directly to the Indian Ocean.
However, the good times did not last long.
At this time, colonialism has expanded rapidly to the Asian continent, and the bloody struggle for the throne in Afghanistan has greatly weakened the strength of this emerging country.
After Ahmad’s death, Afghanistan’s territory shrank and it became a landlocked country again.
In the north, tsarist Russia pushed forward to Central Asia step by step.
In the south, Britain replaced Portugal and France as the master of India.
Persia became a servant of Russia.
Afghanistan is doomed.
(2) the germination of neutral diplomacy and the semi colonization of Afghanistan (1839-1919).
In the 19th century, the so-called “great game” appeared in the hinterland of Asia.
Among them, Russia continued to encroach on the Khanate of Central Asia and tried to threaten British India.
While Britain steadily expanded to northwest India and tried its best to prevent Russia from going south.
Afghanistan was at a loss between the two major powers, and the ambitious Britain launched the first war against Afghanistan from 1839 to 1842, but failed.
The second British war against Afghanistan broke out from 1879 to 1881.
The British army suffered another defeat, but finally forced Afghanistan to sign the humiliating gandamak treaty.
According to the treaty, Britain controlled its diplomatic power, making Afghanistan a semi colony of Britain.
The new king Abdul Rahman (1880-1901) began to seriously consider Afghanistan’s future foreign policy.
In his view, Afghanistan is like “a goat between two lions, or a grain of wheat between two millstones”. L.Dupree.
Afghanistan，Princeton，1980，p.415. Obviously, the only realistic choice is to maintain friendly relations with the two empires at the same time.
In his letter to the British before he ascended the throne, he expressed the hope that “Afghans will always be under the glorious protection of the two empires”.
This is the beginning of Afghanistan’s traditional neutrality, which was inherited by rabibra, Rahman’s son (reigned from 1901 to 1919).
Under the auspices of Britain and tsarist Russia, the border of modern Afghanistan was finally determined in the Rahman period, and the two empires seized a large area of Afghan territory.
In order to “improve” Afghanistan’s buffer state status, Britain arbitrarily handed over the wahan corridor belonging to the negotiation area between China and Russia to Afghanistan, thus avoiding the direct border between Britain and Russia.
Therefore, there are many factors forming the tradition of neutrality in Afghanistan, including domestic and foreign aspects.
First, an important strategic position.
The mountain country of Afghanistan is the gateway to South Asia and a place for strategists.
Second, the national conditions of small land and weak people.
Afghanistan has a small population, backward economy, weak army, loose social organization and insufficient comprehensive national strength.
Third, the neighboring Asian countries cannot form an alliance against the West.
Faced with internal social and political crisis and external pressure, Asian neighbors are preoccupied with their own affairs, have disputes with each other, and alliance is absolutely impossible.
Fourth, the competition between Britain and Russia.
Britain and Russia are enemies of each other in Asia, but in order to avoid head-on conflict, the two countries, especially Britain, hope to take Afghanistan as a buffer state.
From the history of exchanges with both sides, Afghanistan also recognizes that neutrality is the only choice to safeguard national independence.
In the end, this kind of neutrality between great powers developed into neutrality between two major military groups.
(3) the formal formation of neutral diplomacy (1919-1953).
In 1919, Afghanistan succeeded in gaining independence after the third British Afghan war.
King amanula (in office from 1919 to 1929) carried out all-round diplomacy.
Soviet Russia became the first country to recognize Afghanistan, provided amanula with a large amount of economic and military assistance, and the two countries also signed a non aggression treaty.
Afghanistan has always been wary of Britain and Russia.
Therefore, Kabul vigorously develops Germany and Italy, which have no colonial tradition in the regionAnd Turkey, Iran and other Muslim neighbors.
In 1929, amanulla was overthrown for carrying out too radical reforms, but the mushahiban Dynasty later established by nadir, a member of the royal family and former defense minister, largely inherited his policy.
In the Second World War, Afghanistan declared neutrality and expelled non diplomats from western countries and axis countries, avoiding the possible invasion of Afghanistan by Britain and the Soviet Union.
After the Second World War, great changes have taken place in the international situation.
Britain withdrew from South Asia, and the cold war between the United States and the Soviet Union replaced the confrontation between Britain and the Soviet Union.
India and Pakistan achieved partition, and Afghanistan had a dispute with Pakistan over territorial issues (“Pushtunistan” issue).
At the same time, Afghanistan actively seeks economic and military assistance to promote the modernization of the country.
However, Afghanistan has suffered setbacks in gaining U.S. support.
(4) adjustment of neutrality policy (1953-1978).
Prince Daud, who became prime minister in 1953, instead strengthened relations with the Soviet Union.
Moscow provided vital military and economic assistance and diplomatic support to Afghanistan, and undertook the training of Afghan officers.
This initiative has had a far-reaching impact on Afghanistan.
The United States and other western countries have also strengthened their assistance to Afghanistan.
A large amount of assistance from the East and the West has made Afghanistan an “economic North Korea”.
However, Kabul is also committed to developing relations with the third world.
It is one of the founding countries of the non aligned movement and maintains good relations with China, India and other Asian and African countries.
In 1963, King Zahir (1933-1973) forced Daud to step down.
He began to favor the United States, but did not give up the policy of neutrality.
In 1973, with the support of Pro Soviet forces, Daud launched a coup to regain power and establish the Republic.
Although Daud was pro Soviet at the beginning, he soon made adjustments and restored the tradition of neutrality until the coup launched by Pro Soviet forces in 1978.
Afghanistan’s neutrality is different from that of Switzerland, Austria, Finland and other countries.
These countries are neutral, and their legislation is guaranteed by international treaties and is relatively stable.
The neutrality of Afghanistan is only a foreign policy choice and lacks international guarantee.
Once the neighboring powers are determined to violate their sovereignty, the loss of their independence is inevitable, and the status of member states of the non aligned movement is of no help. II. The deepening of socio-economic contradictions and political crisis in post-war Afghanistan is a multi-ethnic country, with Pashtuns as the main ethnic group, and other ethnic groups include Tajiks, Hazara, Uzbeks, Baluchis, Turkmen, etc.
Geographically, Pashtuns are mainly distributed in the South and Southeast, while other ethnic minorities are mainly in the north.
In order to control the north, the government has been promoting the migration of Pashtuns to the north since the era of Abdul Rahman.
In addition, tribes play an important role in Arab social relations.
They exist not only in nomadic society, but also in settled agricultural society, but also in cities.
From a religious point of view, the vast majority of Afghans are Muslims, while Muslims are basically Sunnis.
Shiites are mainly limited to Hazara people, who are of Mongolian descent and have low social status.
Therefore, there are profound ethnic, tribal and sectarian contradictions in Afghanistan.
Afghanistan’s economy is quite backward.
It is basically dominated by agriculture and animal husbandry.
It is in a situation of relying on nature.
It is vulnerable to natural disasters (such as drought).
Infrastructure and industry are more primitive.
There are no decent roads and railways in the country.
After 1956, the government of Afghanistan formulated the World War I economic development plan and the Second World War.
The result of government investment is that the economy has developed to a certain extent.
Education has also made great progress.
However, there are many problems in economic development, mainly in the following aspects: first, economic development funds are heavily dependent on foreign aid.
Due to the low accumulation capacity of the country, foreign aid accounted for about 80% of the actual investment in Afghanistan in the first three five-year plans.
Second, the important role of the state in economic development.
This has caused some problems, such as low enterprise benefits, low prices of agricultural and animal husbandry products (the main agricultural and animal husbandry products and export products such as purple lamb skin, wool and cotton are purchased by the government), serious favoritism, limited development of private capital, etc.
Third, the development of agriculture and animal husbandry is slow.
There has been no major change in its technical level, a large number of land and livestock are still in the hands of big landlords and big herdsmen, and production is still greatly restricted by natural conditions.
Fourth, education is divorced from economic development.
As the number of large and medium-sized graduates exceeds the scale that the economy can absorb, some graduates cannot find employment, while graduates who have worked in government departments are dissatisfied with low wages.
Fifth, the imbalance of economic development.
This is manifested in areas, nationalities, sects, tribes and so on, which intersects with the inherent social contradictions.
For example, the economic level of the Shiite Hazara region is relatively low.
In addition, there are two aspects of social contradictions in Afghanistan.
The first is the contradiction between the secularization policy of the government and the conservative forces.
The Afghan government has made great strides in promoting the secularization of women, especially in 1959.
Since then, women have made significant progress in education, employment and participation in social activities.
However, the move angered conservative forces in the country, who launched riots in 1959.
Secondly, despite the slow economic development, class differentiation has emerged, especially in big cities, which breeds new conflicts.
The mushahiban Dynasty learned from the failure of amanura and committed itself to a gradual modernization policy.
There are: (1) the left wing, including the pro Soviet people’s Democratic Party and the flaming faction who advocates taking the road of Encircling Cities in China’s rural areas.
(2) Islamism, the Muslim Youth Association.
(3) Liberals, such as the Progressive Democratic Party.
(4) Conservative religious forces support monarchy, but oppose secularization reform and the left.
From 1965 to 1968, there was a large-scale wave of students and workers in China, and even farmers participated in the demonstration movement, while there was a positive conflict between the left and the conservative forces.
In the face of the political turmoil, the royal family, attacked by the left and right wings, has turned from relying on intellectuals to promote modernization to relying on conservative forces to deal with the left.
In the parliament elected in 1969, the number of tribal chiefs increased significantly, while religious leaders were the largest professional group.
On the face of it, Afghanistan’s social security in the 1960sOne of the main battlefields.
However, there are differences among donor countries.
The United States, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia only aid the Sunni seven party alliance, especially the radical Pashtun Islamic Party, while Iran provides assistance to the Shiite eight party alliance.
Another important aspect of the war in Afghanistan is that it provides an ideal place for radical world Muslims to oppose “pagans”.
These Muslims come from the Islamic world, especially the Arab countries.
Among them, there are many Islamists, and the most famous is Saudi billionaire bin Laden.
The United States also provided training for some foreign “jihadists”. IV. Afghanistan after the end of the cold war and its future prospects in 1989, the Soviet Union was forced to withdraw from Afghanistan.
The disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991 declared the end of the cold war.
The United States withdrew from Afghanistan in an indirect way, which also relieved the burden of its neighbors in the north.
For the first time since the 19th century, there has been no major power interference in Afghanistan.
Therefore, the contradictions within the resistance organization began to surface, which involved the struggle for power and profit of ideology, tribes, nationalities, sects and individual leaders.
Various organizations began to compete for territory and fight endlessly.
The most important competitors are Rabbani’s Islamic Promotion Association, hikmatyar’s Islamic Party, Shia Unity Party (the former eight party alliance), Uzbek militia defected from the army of the former Kabul regime (led by Dostam), and finally the emerging Taliban.
The bloodiness of the civil war even exceeded that of the Soviet occupation, because the city became a battlefield for the first time, and Afghanistan suffered unprecedented damage.
In 1996, the Taliban, characterized by extreme Islamism, occupied Kabul and gradually controlled 90% of the territory of the country.
The Northern Alliance retreated to the northern corner.
It is the first time in the Islamic world that one Islamist regime has replaced another (although the Taliban has not been widely recognized by the international community).
The Taliban achieved peace in most parts of the country, but the civil war continued.
On the other hand, the new regime lacks the ability to rebuild the economy.
The war has further withered the already flawed national economy.
The only prosperous industry is the production and trade of drugs.
After the end of the cold war, five Muslim countries separated from the Soviet Union appeared in Central Asia, and Afghanistan no longer borders Russia.
With the progress of the civil war, a new pattern has emerged in Afghanistan’s foreign relations.
Since Pakistan had been in bad relations with Afghanistan before the withdrawal of the Soviet Union, it urgently hoped to establish a regime close to Pakistan in Kabul, end the Afghan civil war, lay an oil pipeline to Central Asia and promote the development of its economy.
This coincides with the US strategy of suppressing Russia and intervening in Central Asia.
Therefore, the two countries continued to support the Pashtun hikmatiyar, and after the latter gradually declined, they turned to support the same Pashtun Taliban rising in Pakistan.
Saudi Arabia, which is hostile to Iran, has also joined the front of the United States and Pakistan.
On the other hand, Russia and Iran support the moderate non Pashtun Northern Alliance.
Therefore, a new pattern of confrontation between major powers has emerged in Afghanistan, but foreign involvement is far less than that during the Soviet occupation.
If Afghanistan had little international influence before 1979, the situation changed after the end of the cold war.
Afghanistan has become the home of radical Islamism in Europe and Asia, and bin Laden has used it as a base for his terrorist activities against the West.
Their activities cover Chechnya, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia, Kashmir and even the United States.
It can be seen that contemporary Afghanistan is no longer just a buffer state, and it has had a wide impact on the outside world.
In October 2001, the United States launched the war in Afghanistan and smashed the Taliban regime in December, thus ending the civil war in Afghanistan.
The reconstruction progress of Afghanistan is as follows: (1) political reconstruction.
From November to December 2001, under the leadership of the United Nations, representatives of four major Afghan factions signed an agreement on the establishment of an interim government in Bonn, Germany.
Karzai, a Pashtun leader supported by the United States, became chairman of the interim administration.
In December, Karzai was sworn in in Kabul.
In June 2002, the Loya jirga re elected Karzai as the leader of the transitional government.
The Northern Alliance, which made great contributions to the war, won some important positions in the new cabinet.
In January 2004, the new constitution was adopted by the Loya jirga, which determined that Afghanistan would implement the presidential system.
In October, Karzai won the presidential election and was sworn in in in December.
In September 2005, Afghanistan held parliamentary and provincial council elections, thus completing the three steps of democratic nation building envisaged by the United States.
In January 2002, the Afghan interim government signed an agreement with the United Nations on the deployment of an international peacekeeping force in Afghanistan, which is mainly composed of troops from European countries, especially NATO member states.
In July 2002, the United States announced that the war in Afghanistan was basically over, and 18000 US troops in Afghanistan turned to the mission of maintaining law and order and combating the remnants of the Taliban.
In August 2003, NATO officially took over the international peacekeeping force.
At the beginning of 2007, there were 47000 us and international peacekeeping forces.
However, political reconstruction still faces many difficulties.
First, the contradictions between the political forces of various factions remain the same.
Local warlords support troops and respect themselves, and conflict for territory.
Various factions fought openly and secretly around government positions, while the power of the Northern Alliance gradually declined.
At the local level, the warlords have 170000 armed forces of all kinds.
They almost occupy the posts of Governors of all provinces and refuse to pay taxes to the central government, but eventually they are gradually brought into the track of peaceful reconstruction.
After October 2003, the government launched a plan to disarm civil society organizations, and warlords Atta and Dostam disarmed some of them.
After Karzai was elected president in October 2004, he appointed a new cabinet that basically excluded warlords.
Second, government institutions are inefficient, corruption is serious, and the reconstruction of the army and police is slow.
As of the beginning of 2007, the number of Afghan government troops had only recovered to 42000.
Inadequate equipment and low pay have affected the size and morale of the army.
Among the police, there are some who sympathize with the Taliban.
Third, the activities of anti-government organizations such as the Taliban have revived.
Initially, hikmatyar’s Islamist party has been trying to subvert the interim government and attack the troops stationed in avi.
And many former Taliban leaders and Al QaedaLocal organization members hide in the border area between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Pakistan once advocated the inclusion of Taliban moderates into the new regime, but it was opposed by Russia, India and other countries, and the United States also gave up its initial support.
In May 2005, the Afghan government announced an amnesty for all insurgents, including Taliban supreme leader Omar, but the latter refused.
The Taliban united with Al Qaeda, gradually recovered, learned the means of suicide attacks from the anti American forces in Iraq, and launched an active anti-government struggle.
In July 2002, vice president Kadir was assassinated, and attacks, kidnappings and assassinations occurred one after another everywhere.
Especially after the 2005 elections, the Taliban intensified armed attacks and suicide attacks, which continued to cause casualties among Afghan and foreign soldiers, officials, civilians supporting the government and personnel of aid agencies.
In June 2004, the highway construction project of China Railway 14th Bureau Group in northern Afghanistan was attacked by armed elements, killing 11 Chinese workers and wounding 4 others.
So far, the number of Afghan military and police is still limited and can only control the areas around the capital.
NATO forces are responsible for public security in all regions, but only the North has a good public security situation.
Taliban activities in the South and southeast are increasingly rampant, while the US military’s crackdown is ineffective.
Obviously, the war in Iraq has attracted the attention of the United States, making it unable to pay full attention to Afghanistan.
NATO forces have problems such as the armies of member states acting in their own ways, and some countries are unwilling to participate in the war.
They are helpless in the face of the increasingly active Taliban.
(2) socio economic reconstruction.
Reconstruction faces many difficulties.
According to the statistics of the world bank, 8 million people in Afghanistan depend on food relief, more than 5 million people are homeless, more than 4 million children have become orphans, and about 4 million refugees are distributed in 10 countries.
More than 80 per cent of infrastructure was destroyed.
Moreover, in recent years, the continuous drought, earthquake and other natural disasters have caused crop failure, and 75% of the population is in urgent need of food relief.
According to the data of the World Health Organization in October 2001, Afghanistan has only one doctor per 50000 people on average, and the pregnancy and maternal mortality rate ranks second in the world.
In addition, 80% of schools have been seriously damaged, and the illiteracy rate in China is as high as 70%.
According to the assessment of relevant United Nations agencies, Afghanistan’s 10-year reconstruction budget investment demand is $15 billion, while the Afghan government’s estimate is $45 billion.
From 2001 to 2004, the international community held three fund-raising conferences for the reconstruction of Afghanistan or the International Conference on Afghanistan.
Relevant donor countries, international organizations and non-governmental organizations pledged to provide more than $1.
8 billion in assistance to Afghanistan in 2002 and $8.
2 billion in assistance from 2004 to 2007.
However, much of this assistance has not been delivered.
With the improvement of the situation, about 3 million refugees have returned home.
Education began to recover and women’s rights and status were reaffirmed.
In March 2002, Afghanistan resumed the food, oil and commodity rationing system that had been suspended for 10 years.
In October, a new currency was issued.
In the second half of the same year, the government passed the investment law.
In 2003, the domestic telecommunications system began to recover gradually.
In 2002-2003 and 2003-2004, the growth rate of GDP reached 28.
6% and 23% respectively.
Per capita GDP increased from 129.
3 US dollars in 2000-2001 to 203.
6 US dollars in 2003-2004.
The primary school enrolment rate quickly recovered from 19.
2% in 2000 to 86.
5% in 2005.
In 2005, the utilization rate of fixed telephone and mobile phone was 43.
5 ‰, and the utilization rate of Internet was 1 ‰.
However, there are still problems such as uneven economic development, especially the recovery and further expansion of opium poppy production.
In 2004, opium production in Afghanistan reached the highest level in history, and its supply accounted for nearly 90% of the world.
In 2004, the income from opium cultivation and trafficking in Afghanistan accounted for more than 13% of the national economic income.
Many poor farmers lived on it, and the Taliban also received a lot of income from it.
In order to get the support of local warlords in counter-terrorism and peacekeeping operations, the US military and international security forces in Afghanistan are not interested in combating drug production.
The new Afghan government has been widely recognized by the international community and attaches particular importance to developing relations with western countries that mainly provide assistance, such as the United States, Germany, Japan and the European Union, which promised to help rebuild in terms of security, economy, technology and materials.
As of 2004, Karzai has visited the United States three times.
During his visit to the United States in 2005, the two sides signed a joint declaration on the establishment of bilateral strategic partnership.
Afghanistan has frequently exchanged high-level visits with neighboring countries such as Pakistan, India, China and Iran.
In December 2002, the Afghan government signed the Kabul Declaration of good neighborliness and friendship with six neighbouring countries in Kabul.
The neighbouring countries promised to respect Afghanistan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, not to interfere in Afghanistan’s internal affairs and to maintain regional stability.
Afghanistan also attaches importance to cooperation with the United Nations.
Karzai has attended the G8 summit, the SCO summit, the NATO summit and other important international conferences.
As the new regime is the product of US military action, and there are still US troops and US bases in Afghanistan, this is bound to have a subtle impact on its foreign policy.
The experience of Afghanistan has proved the significant impact of foreign intervention on a country’s development.
Undoubtedly, although the American war can temporarily end the rule of a regime, it is difficult to predict the result of a country’s long-term development.